Changes in the housing market in 2024
The year 2024 was a challenging year for the real estate market. Its beginning was dominated by hopes for a new preferential mortgage program. However, its end had a major impact on housing sales, which began to decline in the second half of the year. An increase in the number of apartments for sale, record offerings by developers and changes in demand all provided a backdrop for the housing market.
At the beginning of December 2024, developers offered a record number of apartments - as many as 57,000 units, an increase of 54% compared to the end of 2023. Still, sales fell 26% year-over-year, suggesting that demand for for-sale housing was weaker than expected.
Decrease in the number of transactions, but stabilization of prices
Despite a marked decline in the number of transactions, housing prices no longer grew as rapidly as in previous years. In the development market, the average price increased by 8%, which, compared to 2023, marked a clear slowdown. Especially in the largest cities, such as Łódź, Wrocław and Poznań, differences in the rate of price growth were noticeable. In these cities, prices grew by 3-5%, but in other centers, such as Łódź (16.7%) and Wrocław (11.7%), the increases were much higher.
Developers and changes in the real estate market
Developers in 2024 had to adjust their strategies to the new reality. At the beginning of the year, after the end of the 2% Safe Credit program, developers decided to increase the number of apartments for sale. They hoped that the increase in supply would facilitate sales in the face of a growing number of potential buyers. In the first quarter of 2024, they put some 15,300 new apartments on the market, an increase of 114% year-on-year.
Number of housing units for sale in 2024
| Period | Number of apartments for sale | Change compared to the previous year (%) |
| January-March | 15 300 | +114% |
| Mid-year | 48 200 | – |
| December | 57 000 | +54% |
Nevertheless, despite the growing supply, housing sales began to decline as early as the second quarter of 2024. In April 2024, apartment sales fell 27% year-on-year, and in May they totaled only 2,600 units, reminiscent of results in late 2022 and early 2023.
Who is buying apartments?
Although the number of transactions declined, there were still customers ready to buy apartments on the market. In the third quarter of 2024, the greatest interest was in high-end apartments, or premium and luxury properties. Customers who had cash or adequate creditworthiness were looking for stable investments that would withstand inflation.
The data shows that more than 70% of those looking for apartments in 2024 planned to buy them for their own use. Interest in premium apartments was growing, especially among those who viewed real estate as a capital security. In this case, what mattered was location, a high standard of finish, as well as access to additional services, such as a swimming pool or gym.
Price growth in the secondary market
Although prices in the primary market grew less rapidly, the secondary market experienced faster price growth. In 2024, the average price of second-hand apartments increased by 13% annually. In contrast, the secondary market remained one of the costlier ones in cities such as Katowice and Wroclaw, where prices rose by 12.5% and 7% respectively. An interesting phenomenon was that sellers in the secondary market reacted to changes in the industry with some delay and were less willing to negotiate prices.
Forecasts for 2025
The year 2025 is expected to be a watershed year for the housing market in Poland. It is predicted that due to the upcoming planning reform and challenges related to the availability of land for investments, the situation in the market may change. On the one hand, developers have prepared for these changes, already having more building permits than investments started. On the other hand, the availability of land for investment in major cities may prove limited, which will affect future housing supply.
The availability of cheaper housing is expected to further reduce in 2025, with wealthier customers preferring more expensive units. Real estate prices are also expected to stabilize, although the second half of the year may see several percent increases. Experts note that factors such as credit availability, credit policy and housing prices will be key in 2025. For more on forecasts and trends in 2025, see the article Residential Real Estate Market Analysis in 2025: Trends and Forecasts.
Summary
The year 2024 was a period of many changes in the market for apartments for sale. The end of the preferential mortgage program, the reduction in the number of transactions and the increase in the supply of apartments made the real estate market more diverse and challenging. Despite the decline in sales, apartment prices continued to rise, although the pace of growth slowed noticeably. In turn, there was more interest in the premium and luxury housing segment, treated by many as a stable investment. Predictions for 2025 point to further stabilization of the market, albeit with limited availability of cheaper units.
The for-sale housing market remains dynamic and challenging. Developers need to adjust their strategies to changing conditions, and customers need to be more careful in choosing their property. One thing is certain - the situation in the real estate market in Poland will continue to be full of volatility, and for those who are planning to buy new apartments, 2025 will certainly bring interesting opportunities.
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